The Double-Digit Trigger: Estimating Inflation Attention Thresholds in Ukraine Using Parliamentary Speeches
a National Bank of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Abstract

This paper estimates Ukraine’s inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10%. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002–2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under non-crisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability.

Publication History
Received 31 July 2025
Accepted 20 August 2020
Avaliable online 11 September 2025
15
views
Full Text
Citation
Cite as: Homeniuk, M. (2025). The Double-Digit Trigger: Estimating Inflation Attention Thresholds in Ukraine Using Parliamentary Speeches. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine (Working Papers, 2025/03). https://doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2025.wp03
Citation Format

Metrics
References

Batchelor, R. A. (1986). The psychophysics of inflation. Journal of Economic Psychology, 7(3), 269–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4870(86)90021-8

Binder, C. (2015). Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations. Journal of Monetary Economics, 90, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.06.001

Bracha, A., Tang, J. (2025). Inflation levels and (in)attention. The Review of Economic Studies, 92(3), 1564–1594. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae063

Buelens, C. (2023). Googling “inflation”: What does internet search behaviour reveal about household (in)attention to inflation and monetary policy? Discussion Paper, 183. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-03/dp183_en_Googling%20inflation_0.pdf

Cavallo, A., Cruces, G., Perez-Truglia, R. (2017). Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(3), 1–35. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150147

Djerf-Pierre, M. (2012). The crowding-out effect: Issue dynamics and attention to environmental issues in television news reporting over 30 years. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 14(3), 321–343. https://doi.org/10.1080/1461670X.2011.650924

Downs, A. (1972). Up and down with ecology: The issue-attention cycle. The Public Interest, 28, 38–50.
Fong, Y., Huang, Y., Gilbert, P. B., Permar, S. R. (2017). chngpt: Threshold regression model estimation and inference. BMC Bioinformatics, 18, 454. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12859-017-1863-x

Fraccaroli, N., Giovannini, A., Jamet, J.-F. (2020). Central banks in parliaments: A text analysis of the parliamentary hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 2442. https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2442~e78be127c0.en.pdf

Hansen, S., McMahon, M., Prat, A. (2018). Transparency and deliberation within the FOMC: A computational linguistics approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(2), 801–870. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx045

Khan, M. S., Senhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF Economic Review, 48(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.2307/4621658

Korenok, O., Munro, D., Chen, J. (2023). Inflation and attention thresholds. The Review of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01402

Kremer, S., Bick, A., Nautz, D. (2012). Inflation and growth: New evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis. Empirical Economics, 44(2), 861–878. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-012-0553-9

Kuzman, T. et al. (2024). Linguistically annotated multilingual comparable corpora of parliamentary debates in English ParlaMint-en.ana 4.1. Slovenian Language Resource Repository CLARIN.SI. http://hdl.handle.net/11356/1910

Maćkowiak, B., Matějka, F., Wiederholt, M. (2018). Dynamic rational inattention: Analytical results. Journal of Economic Theory, 176, 650–692. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.05.001

Mankiw, N. G., Reis, R. (2002). Sticky information versus sticky prices: A proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1295–1328. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935034

Mishchenko, V., Naumenkova, S., Mishchenko, S., Ivanov, V. (2018). Inflation and economic growth: The search for a compromise for the central bank’s monetary policy. Banks and Bank Systems, 13(2), 153–163. http://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.13(2).2018.13

Park, K. (2012). The life cycle of newspaper coverage of a public issue: Candlelight protests against US beef imports in South Korea. Korean Journal of Policy Studies, 27(1), 41–56. https://doi.org/10.52372/kjps27103

Park, K., Jennings, E. T. (2015). The issue-attention cycle and public policy in the United States. Korean Journal of Policy Studies, 30(1), 35–56. https://doi.org/10.52372/kjps30301

Pfäuti, O. (2024). The inflation attention threshold and inflation surges. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2308.09480

Sanders, J., Lisi, G., Schonhardt‐Bailey, C. (2017). Themes and topics in parliamentary oversight hearings: A new direction in textual data analysis. Statistics, Politics and Policy, 8(2), 153–194. https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2017-0012

Sims, C. A. (2003). Implications of rational inattention. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 665–690. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00029-1

Rights and Permissions
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material.