Карпатський національний університет імені Василя Стефаника, Івано-Франківськ, Україна
У дослідженні аналізується нелінійний вплив волатильності реального ефективного обмінного курсу (РЕОК) на економічну активність в Україні. Для цього використано порогову векторну авторегресійну модель (TVAR) на даних за період із червня 2009 року до грудня 2021 року. Результати свідчать про наявність порогового значення коливань РЕОК на рівні 1,8%. Нижче цього порогу волатильність стимулює економічну активність, тоді як за перевищення 1,8% ефект стає негативним. Цей нелінійний вплив є більш вираженим для галузей, залучених до зовнішньої торгівлі, а також для секторів із еластичним попитом на власну продукцію. Відтак Національному банку України доцільно прагнути утримувати волатильність РЕОК нижче рівня 1,8%, щоб коливання обмінного курсу не завдавали шкоди економіці.
Прийнято до публікації 11 November 2024
Опубліковано онлайн 27 November 2025
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